The Special Election in NY-23 is On!

John McHugh started his new job as Secretary of the Army last week. With the seat vacant, Governor Paterson announced that the special election to fill the seat will be held on November 3rd, alongside the regularly scheduled elections. The candidates vying to succeed McHugh in the U.S. House of Representatives are Republican/Independence Party candidate Dede Scozzafava, Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative Doug Hoffman.

These last two weeks have been busy for all three candidates. House Minority Leader John Boehner suggested that Scozzafava would follow McHugh onto the House Armed Services Committee should she win the seat. State Senator Darrel Aubertine, who was an early favorite to run for and win this seat, endorsed fellow Democrat Bill Owens. Doug Hoffman called on Dede Scozzafava to disavow her relationship with the radical Working Families Party (which has yet to endorse a candidate in this race), and by extension, the corrupt ACORN community organization.

Meanwhile, all three candidates have been racking up endorsements. Scozzafava was endorsed by Oswego-area and North Country State Senators and Assemblymen and the Republican Main Street Partnership PAC, while Owens was endorsed by the SEIU. The big endorsement news comes from Doug Hoffman’s campaign. Hoffman was endorsed by former presidential candidate Senator Fred Thompson, the Club for Growth, the Susan B. Anthony List and the New York State Troopers’ Police Benevolent Association. I’ve included a sampling of the three candidates TV and web ads.

Maffei Tells Paterson Not to Run in 2010

After a poll showed that 62% of New Yorkers didn’t want President Obama to get involved in New York’s upcoming gubernatorial race by trying to muscle Governor David Paterson out of running for a full term, Congressman Dan Maffei decided that he also wanted to show Governor Paterson the door. Maffei, who continues to rake in campaign cash at breakneck speed, fears that Paterson’s presence on the ballot in 2010 may hurt his chances for re-election.

The Mayor Makes an Endorsement

The first major post-primary, not-Joe-Nicoletti, endorsement went to Stephanie Miner. The sitting mayor, Democrat Matt Driscoll, gave Stephanie his blessing in her quest to replace him at City Hall. Driscoll wisely stayed out of the primary and took the safe route by endorsing the winner after the fact. Stephanie faces Republican/Independence candidate Steve Kimatian and Conservative candidate Otis Jennings. The three mayoral candidates will be debating tonight for the first time.

The Rick Lazio Announcement Tour Comes to Syracuse

Gubernatorial candidate Rick Lazio stopped in Syracuse on his announcement tour. This will be his first run for elected office since 2000, when he was a last minute replacement for Rudy Giuliani in New York’s U.S. Senate election. He isn’t making that mistake this time. Lazio is getting an early start in his run for governor and isn’t waiting around for Rudy Giuliani to make a decision. Lazio was a Long Island congressman in the 1990’s and he lost the 2000 U.S. Senate race to Hillary Clinton. Most recently, he was a managing director at JPMorgan Chase.

Otis Jennings is Still a Candidate for Mayor

Mayoral candidate Otis Jennings confirmed this morning that he will continue to actively campaign for the city’s top executive post. He lost last week’s Republican primary to political newcomer Steve Kimatian, but remains on the ballot on the Conservative line. This sets up a three-way race between Jennings (C), Kimatian (R, I) and Councilor-at-Large Stephanie Miner (D, WF).

The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 3rd. If Otis wants to have any impact in the race, especially if he still thinks he can win, he needs to shake up his campaign staff and do a lot of heavy lifting over the next seven weeks.

Primary Day Odds & Ends

Though the focus was on the mayoral primaries on Tuesday night, there were a few other notable primaries in Onondaga County. The Clay-based 2nd Legislative District had a Republican primary with some similarities to the Republican mayoral primary, with one major difference. Clay Republicans selected John Dougherty (pictured at left) to represent them, but County Executive Joanie Mahoney backed a challenger. In the city, that challenger (to party designee Otis Jennings) was Steve Kimatian, who also has the Independence line, and in Clay, that challenger was David Stewart, who also has the Independence and Conservative lines. The major difference between the two races was that in the city, Joanie-backed Steve Kimatian won by a 12 point margin. In Clay, Joanie-backed David Stewart was massacred at the ballot box and lost by a whopping 73 point margin.

Another race for the County Legislature of some interest was the opportunity-to-ballot (OTB) race for the Conservative Party line in the 9th District, anchored by Eastwood and the Village of East Syracuse. The Conservative Party endorsed 28-year incumbent Democrat Floor Leader Mark Stanczyk (pictured at right), but Republican challenger Mike Sutton collected OTB petitions to force what is basically a write-in primary. Stanczyk’s name appeared on the ballot on Primary Day, but Sutton’s supporters had to write in his name in order to cast their vote for him. The outcome of the vote was a 10-10 tie. If there are any absentee ballots, they won’t be opened until at least next week. If the tie stands, Stanczyk gets to keep the line. A Sutton win would give him three lines (R, I, and C). Stanczyk will only be appearing on the Democrat line. He was endorsed by the Working Families Party, but because he can only have a maximum of three lines, he declined the Working Families line in order to maintain the Conservative line. (CORRECTION: I'd like to thank the anonymous commenter who corrected my misunderstanding of the number of lines a candidate can have: "A candidate can have as many party lines as there are parties with automatic ballot status. The only limitation for ballot lines is that if you have 2 lines you cannot create a 3rd through an independent nominating petition, that line must be merged with another. Unless of course it is a state legislative race, in which case you can have unlimited lines.") What makes this race more complicated is the fact that Mike Sutton was on the Jim Reith show on Wednesday alleging that some of his Conservative supporters may have been turned away at the polls. If Mr. Sutton can wrestle the Conservative line away from Stanczyk, it will be a MAJOR upset. This is a race to watch until the end.

In the Salina-based 4th Legislative District, incumbent Democrat Dave Stott and Republican challenger Judy Tassone (pictured at left) waged write-in campaigns for the Conservative line after neither candidate received the endorsement of the Conservative Party. Judy Tassone came out ahead, 18 votes to Stott’s 11. Any absentee ballots won’t be opened until at least next week, but they are not likely to alter the results from Primary Day.

There was a similar situation in Syracuse’s 3rd Common Council District. Incumbent Republican Ryan McMahon and Democrat Dorothy Matthews battled for the Conservative line with dueling write-in campaigns. After voting was over on Primary Day, Dorothy Matthews was ahead 2 votes to 1. Ryan McMahon already has three lines: Republican, Independence and Working Families; so if he wins he would likely turn down the Conservative line, leaving it blank, but denying it to his opponent. Again, if there are any absentee ballots for this race, they won’t be opened until at least next week.

Miner Wins Nicoletti's Endorsement

Quick post-primary update: Defeated mayoral candidate Joe Nicoletti endorsed his former opponent, Stephanie Miner, to be the City of Syracuse’s next mayor.

Miner and Kimatian Win Mayoral Primaries

The results are in. Party designee Stephanie Miner defeated Joe Nicoletti by a margin of 44.4 percent to 35.6 percent in the Democrats’ primary. Her overwhelming strength in the 17th Ward carried her to victory. Also-rans Alfonso Davis received 11.2 percent of the vote and Carmen Harlow received 8.7 percent of the vote. Steve Kimatian upset Republican Party designee Otis Jennings by a 56.4 percent to 43.5 percent margin. The two Republican candidates were basically tied throughout most of the city, but Mr. Kimatian was able to win the primary decisively by pulling out large margins in the Sedgwick and Strathmore neighborhoods. You can see ward-by-ward results here.

As we head into the general election, Stephanie Miner will be on the Democrat and Working Families lines on the ballot and Mr. Kimatian will be on the Republican and Independence lines. Though he lost the Republican primary, Otis Jennings will remain on the Conservative line and according to the Syracuse New Times, Otis says he will continue to actively campaign for the city’s top elected office.

Primary Candidate Analysis, Part 4

The fourth and final part of my primary candidate analysis focuses on the candidates’ communication abilities and knowledge of issues. Each candidate sat down with News 10 Now’s Bill Carey for roughly 15 minutes each and answered the same series of questions. I will be basing my ratings on these interviews.

Alfonso Davis

Watch the interview here.

Alfonso Davis seemed to struggle a little bit in the sit-down, one-on-one interview format. He was able to communicate some of his ideas, but probably not as clearly and fluently as he would have liked. He has definitely improved his performance over the course of the campaign, but it his communication abilities have yet to fully reach a professional level.

Rating: 3/5.

Carmen Harlow

Watch the interview here.

Carmen Harlow showed more self-confidence than Alfonso Davis, but Mr. Harlow tended to ramble quite a bit during the one-on-one interview with Bill Carey. He went off topic for several minutes while answering pretty much every question. I really didn’t get a good sense of Mr. Harlow’s vision or what sort of policy goals he would be seeking if elected.

Rating: 2/5.

Otis Jennings

Watch the interview here.

Otis did a great job of turning some of Bill Carey’s questions into opportunities to discuss some of his proposals and his vision for Syracuse. He communicated his positions effectively and came across as educated on the issues. Otis’ background as a motivational speaker certainly helped him get his major points across during this interview.

Rating: 4/5.

Steve Kimatian

Watch the interview here.

Speaking with notes handy, Mr. Kimatian communicated his ideas expertly. He spoke with confidence and got his points across very well. His background hosting a talk show (“Sundays with Steve”) gave his responses a more conversational tone, which certainly help his ability to discuss his proposals. Mr. Kimatian appeared well-informed and marketed himself well.

Rating: 4/5.

Stephanie Miner

Watch the interview here.

Stephanie Miner was calm, cool and collected in this interview. She was very comfortable speaking about a variety of city issues and was a very effective communicator. She seemed to go more in-depth than some of the other candidates, but like the rest of the field, she didn’t knock the interview out of the park. Overall, Stephanie did very well.

Rating: 4/5.

Joe Nicoletti

Watch the interview here.

Joe Nicoletti came across as educated on the issues and polished in his delivery. Again, Nicoletti held his own during the interview, but failed to outshine the other major candidates of both parties. He made a couple of verbal slip-ups (my favorite being “we will attack this community”), but they did not detract from his eloquent discussion of city issues.

Rating: 4/5.

Primary Candidate Analysis, Part 3

The third part of my primary candidate analysis focuses on the late-primary money situation. The ratings are based ONLY on the 11-Day Pre Primary Report filed by each candidate with the State Board of Elections. This filing covers the period from roughly Friday, August 14th until Friday, September 4th. The next filing is the 10-Day Post Primary Report due on September 25th.

Alfonso Davis

Alfonso Davis’ campaign account had $4,464.07 in it at the beginning of this period. After $1,150.00 in contributions and $2,290.58 in expenses, Alfonso had $3,323.49 left in the account at the end of this period.

View the Report Summary for Alfonso Davis here.

Alfonso Davis managed to raise and spend even less than Carmen Harlow. Not good.

Rating: 2/5.

Carmen Harlow

Carmen Harlow’s campaign account had $520.28 in it at the beginning of this period. After $3,450.00 in contributions and $3,662.30 in expenses, Harlow had $307.98 left in the account at the end of this period.

View the Report Summary for Carmen Harlow here.

Harlow’s financial situation is dire. No further explanation is needed

Rating: 1/5.

Otis Jennings

Otis Jennings’ campaign account had $125,084.60 in it at the beginning of this period. After $34,075.00 in contributions and $21,400.91 in expenses, Otis had $137,758.69 left in the account at the end of this period.

View the Report Summary for Otis Jennings here.

Otis is the clear fundraising leader on the Republican side and due to a low burn rate, is in the best financial shape of any candidate moving forward, though he has surely spent a big chunk of his cash since this filing.

Rating: 4/5.

Steve Kimatian

Steve Kimatian’s campaign account had $41,954.25 in it at the beginning of this period. After $0.00 in contributions and $0.00 in expenses, Kimatian had $41,954.25 left in the account at the end of this period.

View the Report Summary for Steve Kimatian here.

These numbers don’t pass the smell test. Kimatian didn’t raise or spend any money in a three week period leading into the final month of the primary season? What is he doing?

Rating: 1/5.

Stephanie Miner

Stephanie Miner’s campaign account had $246,909.66 in it at the beginning of this period. After $28,185.00 in contributions and $241,923.53 in expenses, Stephanie had $33,182.32 left in the account at the end of this period.

View the Report Summary for Stephanie Miner here.

Stephanie has clearly been saving her money for the primary. She also burned through almost all of it battling Joe Nicoletti. If Stephanie makes it through the primary, she will have to start fundraising from scratch for the general election.

Rating: 3/5.

Joe Nicoletti

Joe Nicoletti’s campaign account had $181,555.99 in it at the beginning of this period. After $47,925.00 in contributions and $174,376.03 in expenses, Nicoletti had $55,104.96 left in the account at the end of this period.

View the Report Summary for Joe Nicoletti here.

Joe is in the same boat as Stephanie. This primary has wiped out his campaign account, but he is in slightly better shape moving forward, though both Nicoletti and Stephanie may face a slight cash disadvantage initially if either one is to face Otis Jennings in the general election.

Rating: 3/5.

Primary Candidate Analysis, Part 2

The second part of my primary candidate analysis focuses on lawn signs. Lawn signs are the most visible displays of public support for a candidate. Lawn signs should grab the attention of voters but be simple enough to get a message across.

Alfonso Davis


Alfonso’s sign is the wordiest of all of the candidate’s signs. Driving by quickly, it is difficult to read everything on the sign, which decreases the impact the sign has. The American flag in the “D” of his name is distracting and makes the sign harder to read. Also, he is the only candidate that has the date of the primary on his sign. Does this mean he doesn’t expect to make it into the general election?

Rating: 2/5.

Carmen Harlow


If I remember correctly, I believe Carmen Harlow was the first candidate to distribute his lawn signs to supporters. It is nice and simple and to the point. There is a nice graphic and the “Harlow for Mayor” message is in a nice, big font. He also includes the URL to his horrible website on the sign. Overall, this is one of the best signs of the six.

Rating: 4/5.

Otis Jennings


Otis’ sign is clear and colorful. The big white “OTIS” text on a dark blue background is eye-catching and he directs voters to his website. The flag graphic in the corner is a nice touch. Graphics can be distracting on a lawn sign, but Otis, along with Carmen Harlow, make it work. I am giving this sign the top score because it is nice and colorful, with clear, readable text.

Rating: 5/5.

Steve Kimatian


Steve’s sign baffles me. It is the most boring of all six signs. Do plain text and plain colors reflect a plain candidate? Like Otis and Carmen Harlow, Kimatian’s lawn sign directs people to his website. Maybe visitors to his website will enjoy the splash of yellow that is lacking on his signs. Sorry, Steve, your sign just doesn’t cut it.

Rating: 1/5.

Stephanie Miner


I find Stephanie’s sign to be very interesting. The sign is a simple blue on white, the only sign that includes only one non-white color. Sign printers charge more for each additional color, so perhaps Stephanie was looking to save money. She has been one of the most prolific fundraisers in this race, so this theory goes out the window. Her Obama-like logo is so last year.

Rating: 3/5.

Joe Nicoletti


When I first saw Nicoletti’s sign in someone’s yard, I thought maybe my neighbor was getting their driveway paved or their house painted. This sign is very commercial looking for some reason, which does detract slightly from its appearance. Nicoletti slapped his slogan on his sign and made sure to let everyone know he is a Democrat.

Rating: 3/5.

Primary Candidate Analysis, Part 1

Tomorrow is Primary Day. Two Republicans and four Democrats will face off to earn the right to represent their respective parties in this November’s mayoral election. The Republican candidates are party designee Otis Jennings and challenger Steve Kimatian. The Democrats are party designee Stephanie Miner and challengers Joe Nicoletti, Alfonso Davis and Carmen Harlow. I will be making several posts to this blog today analyzing and rating some key aspects of each campaign. First up: candidate websites.

Alfonso Davis (http://www.alfonsodavisformayor.com)

Alfonso Davis’ website is well done. The front page consists of a note to city residents, a picture of Alfonso, a nice video, buttons to contribute/volunteer, and links to several pages with detailed information about his vision for Syracuse. Again, the website is well done, but just a notch below the professionalism of some of the other candidate websites.

Rating: 4/5.

Carmen Harlow (http://www.harlowformayor.com)

The first impression of Mr. Harlow’s website is that it was designed by a fifth grader. Unfortunately, it’s also the last impression. The entire website is crammed onto the front page. There do not appear to be any internal links. There are a few photos, several of which are grainy. This is not the website of a serious candidate.

Rating: 1/5.

Otis Jennings (http://www.otisjennings.com)

First of all, this website has a nice header: a great picture of Otis with his slogan and an outline of the city skyline in front of an American flag. Then you scroll down. I find the front page of Otis’ website to be a little too busy. Too many links (some of which are duplicated) on the front page and not enough graphics to break up the text. The quality and variety of content of the website are its saving grace.

Rating: 4/5.

Steve Kimatian (http://www.steveforsyracuse.com)

The front page of Mr. Kimatian’s website is similar to Alfonso Davis’ in that they are both pretty standard. Not much flair. At least Alfonso has a nice color scheme. Red, black and yellow, Mr. Kimatian? Really? Aside from that, the website has good content and a nice layout, but still comes up lacking that extra touch.

Rating: 3/5.

Stephanie Miner (http://www.stephanieminer.com)

Let me say right off the bat that this is the best of the six websites. It is the most professional looking and the layout and content match the quality of the appearance. The front page isn’t cluttered and the layout encourages the viewer to explore the website. Unfortunately for the other candidates, this website is the standard to which the others are compared.

Rating: 5/5.

Joe Nicoletti (http://www.joenicoletti.com)

The front page of this website is heavy on content, but the layout helps to organize and break it up. I still think it’s a little too busy. Overall, the website is of very good quality. Joe definitely gets points for quality of content and general professionalism, but in my opinion, his front page is just too cluttered to give him a perfect score.

Rating: 4/5.

Nicoletti Gets Another Endorsement

Syracuse City Auditor Phil LaTessa came out in support of Joe Nicoletti in the mayoral primary race. LaTessa considered running for mayor himself but never made the jump. Nicoletti also picked up the endorsement of several local unions to counter mayoral candidate (and party designee) Stephanie Miner’s advantage among labor unions. As the September 15th primary fast approaches, attention turns to current mayor Matt Driscoll. A last-minute endorsement from the mayor for either candidate could have a significant impact on undecided voters. At this point in the race, it seems Driscoll may be sitting on the sidelines through the primary in preparation to endorse whichever Democrat comes out alive after this Tuesday.

Joe Biden Stops By

Vice President Joe Biden was in town recently for an event at Syracuse University with Secretary of the Treasury, Tim Geithner, and the Secretary of Education, Arne Duncan. While he was here he attended two high-profile fundraisers for local Democrats. Biden stopped by the OnCenter to headline a fundraiser for Congressman Dan Maffei. The VP also met with donors at a private event at the offices of Bond, Schoeneck & King, a Syracuse law firm, to raise money for Bill Owens, the Democrat candidate in the upcoming special election in New York’s 23rd congressional district. Governor David Paterson will schedule a special election when the seat’s current occupant, Republican John McHugh, is confirmed as Secretary of the Army. Bill Owens also recently picked up the endorsement of New York’s senior U.S. Senator, Chuck Schumer.

McAuliffe Endorses (and Dumps Money on) Joe Nicoletti

The Democrats’ former National Chairman and Clinton confidante, Syracuse native Terry McAuliffe, made an endorsement in the Syracuse mayoral primary. McAuliffe endorsed Joe Nicoletti and backed up the endorsement with a $5,000 donation.

Onondaga County Endorsement Helps Put Ed Cox Over the Top

This fall, New York State’s Republican county chairs and county committee people will elect a new State Chairman. Current Chairman Joe Mondello, of Nassau County, will be vacating the state’s top party post. Richard Nixon son-in-law and John McCain New York State presidential campaign coordinator Ed Cox came out early to with an announcement that he would be running for State Chairman and racked up a lot of endorsements and pledges early. Niagara County Chairman Henry Wojtaszek waited until Mondello officially announced that he wouldn’t be running again before he started an official campaign for the post. Even though he had the backing of a motley crew of New York Republicans (including Rudy Giuliani, George Pataki, Joe Bruno and Joe Mondello), Wojtaszek began campaigning for the post too late to build any momentum. Cox had already convinced more than half of the county chairmen in the state to join his team. Onondaga County Republican Chairman John DeSpirito announced his support for Ed Cox and Wojtaszek withdrew from the race a week later. Ed Cox will cruise into the position as Republicans across the state are suffering. Republicans hold no statewide positions and lost control of the State Senate last year for the first time in decades. Republican representation in Congress has dropped to a measly three seats in New York’s 29-member delegation and the upcoming special election in the 23rd congressional district could give the Democrat’s another pickup. Ed Cox has a long, hard road ahead of him.

. . . And Stephanie Miner

Congressman Dan Maffei endorsed Stephanie Miner today at Nottingham High School as she seeks the nomination of her party to run for Mayor of Syracuse. The primary is less than two weeks away.

Maffei Lines Up Behind Gillibrand . . .

Congressman Dan Maffei finally endorsed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand as she seeks a full term for U.S. Senate next year. He becomes Gillibrand’s 15th endorsement from the Democrats' 26-member congressional delegation. The endorsement announcement follows on the heels of an endorsement from fellow Upstate Congressman Eric Massa a few weeks ago. Also making news in this race is Republican Congressman Peter King, of Long Island, who announced that he will not be challenging Gillibrand in next year’s Senate race. There are also rumblings that former Governor Spitzer may try to make his political comeback by challenging Gillibrand for her Senate seat.