The special congressional election in New York’s 20th congressional district has had so many twists and turns in the past month. It has been difficult for me to keep up with all the news pouring out from this race. For this reason, I present to you the “special election wrap-up” today as an attempt to fill you in on what’s gone on in the race and what to watch for as the voting results come in tonight.New York State Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco (R) and venture capitalist Scott Murphy (D) are locked in a battle for Congress that will end tonight (barring a recount or legal challenge). Tedisco will be on the Republican and Conservative lines on the ballot. Murphy will be on the Democrat, Working Families and (in somewhat of a coup) the Independence Party line. Bigwig politicos from across the country have been focused on this race due to its symbolic importance. Newly elected Republican National Chairman Michael Steele has staked his reputation on Tedisco’s victory and Vice President Joe Biden and new senator Kirsten Gillibrand (the seat’s previous occupant) have recorded robocalls in support of Murphy’s candidacy.
Scott Murphy hammered Jim Tedisco for weeks for not taking a position on the stimulus plan and when Tedisco finally stated he would have voted with his party against the bill, Murphy attacked him some more. Tedisco has been tying Murphy to some of the unsavory portions of the stimulus plan and bailout bills, specifically AIG bonuses. The national media is portraying this race as a referendum on President Barack Obama and his economic package. Though the Republicans have an enrollment advantage in the district, Obama carried it with 51% of the vote. Republicans are hoping that without Obama on the ballot, voting patterns will return to the district’s more traditional partisan breakdown. If Scott Murphy wins, the national media will trumpet his victory as a signal of support for Obama’s economic policies from voters. If Tedisco wins, the GOP will hail his victory as a turn of the tide and a symbol for growing strength heading into the 2010 congressional elections (and the 2009 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia). If Tedisco loses, expect calls for the resignation of both Steele and NY State Chairman Joe Mondello.
Polls have tightened quite a bit in the recent weeks. Jim Tedisco enjoyed a large lead early in the race, but as voters have become more familiar with Scott Murphy, he has been closing the gap. The most recent polls show a dead heat, with either candidate ahead within the margin of error. It all comes down to turnout.
The TV and radio airwaves (not to mention mailboxes) have been filled with political ads and I am not going to attempt to gather them all here. Below is a DNC ad touting Obama’s support of Scott Murphy and an ad by the National Republican Congressional Committee slamming Murphy’s opposition to the death penalty for terrorists. I’ll be back tomorrow with the election results.



